CAPE TOWN – The Bulls will break the Newlands curse and win against the Stormers for the first time since 2011. They will weather the storm of a home team that isn’t good enough to beat them.
I am putting down R2 000 to win back R4 300 on an outright Bulls win.
The scarring from the opening round 40-pointer when the Bulls won 40-3 in Pretoria will still be there.
Bulls flyhalf Handre Pollard, as he has done all season, will be influential in determining the comfort of a Bulls win.
The Stormers were very poor in losing to the Brumbies at home and ordinarily I would be resistant to bet against the Stormers at home. Their form traditionally has been decent and that has on occasion made me hesitant to invest money in a Newlands game.
Not this time.
It will be all the Bulls. I have them to win on Superbru by 10 points.
Super Rugby this season has been a minefield.
The only predictable in Super Rugby has been the Crusaders’ dominance, whether they play at home or away. There was the one hiccup against the Waratahs in Sydney, but the context to that defeat was it came a week after the Christchurch mosque attacks. The Crusaders’ players minds were understandably on everything, but rugby.
I won’t be putting money on the Lions visit to Christchurch because there is a possibility of them covering the 20.5 handicap. However, the admission of Lions chief executive and former Sharks and Springbok coach Rudolf Straeuli that the Lions deliberately put out a team sheet 48 hours before the Chiefs game that wasn’t the run-on XV, makes me doubt the integrity of their team announcement this week.
Straeuli and the franchise should have been sanctioned. So much money is invested in betting on Super Rugby and the one thing the punter expects is that the team announced is the one that starts.
My Superbru is that the Crusaders will blow the Lions away, but it isn’t a match that excites me too much in terms of betting. I am going Crusaders to win by 30-plus, but as I wrote earlier I wouldn’t be surprised if the Lions did manage to cover the handicap.
Where my money is going is Buenos Aires where I think the bookies have been very generous to the Brumbies. The spread is plus four and half points for the Brumbies, but I am putting down R3 000 on the Jaguares to win by five or more points and that will give me a return of R5 700.
The Jaguares is my bet of the week and I will also be betting on the Chiefs to cover the 10.5 plus spread against the Hurricanes. In layman’s terms, it means the Chiefs won’t lose by 11 points or more. I am betting R1 000 to win back R1 900.
Making money in sports betting is not about betting on every game, but knowing which ones to avoid and my advice to my followers this week is to avoid the Sunwolves v Highlanders and the Waratahs v Sharks.
* Kevin Ferguson is the chief executive of Highbury Media and a leading sports betting specialist in South Africa.